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Why is the weather becoming more extreme?

A man releases a dead goat in the river after the deadly flood following heavy rainfall along the bank of Roshi River at Panauti in Kavre, Nepal September 30, 2024. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar
explainer

A man releases a dead goat in the river after the deadly flood following heavy rainfall along the bank of Roshi River at Panauti in Kavre, Nepal September 30, 2024. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar

What鈥檚 the context?

Climate change is making extreme weather like Cyclone Chido more frequent and more intense; scientists say emissions must be cut

  • Climate change causing more extreme weather
  • Scientists warn storms, floods, heatwaves could get worse
  • Extreme events cost billions of dollars in damages 

LONDON - Around 100 people, including children and counsellors at a summer camp, were swept to their deaths during flash floods in central Texas last week as climate scientists warned that such extreme weather events were more likely in a warming world.

Climate Central, a U.S.-based advocacy group, said the atmosphere can hold more moisture in a warming climate, leading to heavier and more intense rainfall.

"Instead of uniform, widespread rain, we're seeing more localised, extreme downpours as storms tap into unusually high moisture levels," it said on its website .

Scientists say halving planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is crucial to stop temperatures rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). But the world is , making extreme weather likelier.

Even a small increase of 0.5 C degrees can cause , according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The warmer atmosphere causes more moisture to be absorbed in the air, resulting in both hotter, drier conditions and heavier rainfall, Sonia Seneviratne, a lead author of an IPCC assessment report, told Context.

So how does climate change affect different weather events?

People look at a house destroyed by the flood wave of Bia艂a Ladecka river, aftermath of flooding in Ladek Zdroj, Poland, September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

People look at a house destroyed by the flood wave of Bia艂a Ladecka river, aftermath of flooding in Ladek Zdroj, Poland, September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

People look at a house destroyed by the flood wave of Bia艂a Ladecka river, aftermath of flooding in Ladek Zdroj, Poland, September 19, 2024. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

Heatwaves

Heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels is raising temperatures to levels unfamiliar to many parts of the world.

In June, tens of millions of Americans sweltered as the heat index C. In early July, Europe was that meteorologists said was "exceptional" because it struck so early in the year.

A March heatwave in central Asia was , said World Weather Attribution (WWA), a global team of scientists who examine the role played by climate change in extreme weather. Climate change made it about 4 C hotter, it said.

Precipitation

For every degree of warming, extreme daily rainfall can increase by , according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Heavy rains and flooding that killed 16 people in March in Argentina were , scientists said.

A WWA analysis found that caused a warmer, more humid mass of air that clashed with a cold front from Patagonia, causing torrential rains south of Buenos Aires.

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Floods

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of major floods , from 1,389 to 3,254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1,457 to 2,034, according to a United Nations report.

Flooding is caused by increased rainfall from water stored in the atmosphere and rising sea levels. The latter happens as sea ice melts and ocean water expands, Seneviratne said.

Last October, the to hit Spain in three decades was made twice as likely and , according to WWA.

Storms

Tropical cyclones, like typhoons and hurricanes, are unlikely to occur more frequently because of climate change, but the , according to the IPCC.

Large amounts of water held in the atmosphere and the energy created by warmer air temperatures make storms more intense.

U.S. government scientists forecast an , with warmer sea-surface temperatures a major contributor. Last year's Atlantic hurricane season was one of the costliest on record with five major hurricanes.

People wade through a flooded street following the impact of Typhoon Yagi, in Thai Nguyen City, Vietnam, September 11, 2024. REUTERS/Thinh Nguyen

People wade through a flooded street following the impact of Typhoon Yagi, in Thai Nguyen City, Vietnam, September 11, 2024. REUTERS/Thinh Nguyen

People wade through a flooded street following the impact of Typhoon Yagi, in Thai Nguyen City, Vietnam, September 11, 2024. REUTERS/Thinh Nguyen

Drought

Higher temperatures draw more moisture from the land and dry out the soil, which cannot . Instead, it runs off into rivers, increasing the risk of floods following droughts.

Droughts also increase temperatures as air above the ground warms more quickly.

Wildfires

Intense heat and dry land and soil create perfect conditions for wildfires to spread.

Climate change and land-use changes are expected to increase the occurrence of extreme wildfires by 14% by 2030 and , according to a report by the U.N. Environment Programme and non-profit GRID-Arendal.

The destruction of key ecosystems that help to absorb carbon, like peatland and rainforest, will make it harder to slow rising temperatures.

This story was updated on Tuesday July 8 at 16:06 GMT to add details about the Texas floods.

(Reporting by Beatrice Tridimas; Editing by Clar Ni Chonghaile and Ayla Jean Yackley.)


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